Archive for May, 2009

Why Google Wave Matters

Lots of discussion around the web about Google Wave.  One common meme floating around dismisses it as an Outlook clone.

I think it’s a mistake to focus on the ‘features’ and the ‘user interfaces’ Google demonstrated.  They are of course necessary to illustrate how this new architecture can be used.  But these interfaces will evolve and morph over time.

Wave matters  because it shifts  communication and collaboration from a document transmission paradigm to a shared document editing paradigm where all documents exist in a shared repository potentially accessible by anyone.  This makes it much easier to ‘mix and match’ different kinds of communication and collaboration — which will likely lead to entirely new forms of interaction over time.

The Traditional Document Transmission Paradigm

Traditional paradigms are all based on the idea of a document being transmitted from one or more authors to one or more readers.  An email, is a very directed communication.  The document may be ‘passed around’ and forwarded to others who might add to the content.  An IM is typically quite a short document.  A tweet is by definition a short document, but one that is shared with many people.  A blog is a longer document – again shared publicly with many people.  Comments on emails, IM’s or blogs are all (typically) document based – your comment is appended to the document.

Likewise, collaborative editing is also document based.  Multiple people can edit the document – it can be sent around to different participants for comments – but (at least in the Microsoft paradigm) the document itself is passed around and edited and is the repository of the collected activity.  People tend to edit the document sequentially appending their edits to it.  The document itself is physically ‘passed around’ – either by email or checking it out of some shared repository.

The New Wave Paradigm

In the Wave paradigm every communication takes the form of a shared document in the cloud.  Communication is accomplished through shared editing of the document and real-time transmission of the changes to a group of readers or participants.  Every document is potentially accessible to anyone and everyone – you extend or contract the circle of people involved by explicitly controlling who has access to the document and what their rights are.

This paradigm easily accommodates all the traditional forms of communication and collaboration.  An email is a shared document with a restricted audience.  An IM is also a shared document with a restricted audience – just shorter.  A blog or tweet is a shared document with a public audience.  Social network type communications are shared documents with defined groups as audiences.  Changes in documents are transmitted to readers or listeners in real-time.  And of course, in the case of collaborative documents anyone given access and authority can participate in the construction of the document.  At any point in time.  There is no need to ‘pass the document’ around for editing.

So What?

If all Wave did was replace existing paradigms – it might not be that interesting.  This explains why some people are  shrugging their shoulders.  To them, it just looks too much like existing applications.  A ‘cloud based’ re-engineering effort.

It realizes it’s true power when you start to utilize the new paradigm to ‘cross boundaries’.  Let me try to illustrate this with an imagined example:

When I read a blog post or tweet there are many different things I might want to do with it.  For example, let’s say it’s something a competitor is doing.  I might want to forward it to colleagues and have a private conversation about it.  I might want to make a comment for public consumption.  I might want to blog or comment on some or all of it for public consumption by people who are following me in some way.  In some cases, I might want to do all three.

I can do all of this today.  But it’s ackward and this ackwardness places barriers that impede the flow of communication.  It causes me to ‘not bother’ with certain kinds of communication because they take too much effort.

In a Wave world I can participate in the conversation on the existing wave (the equivalent of commenting on the blog), create a derivative wave for public consumption (the equivalent of blogging or tweeting it) and create a private conversation with a limited audience (my colleagues say) discussing the original ‘blog post’.  There can of course be both private and public conversations about my derviative public conversation as well.

The comments on the original blog post can also take the form of ‘long and thoughtful commentary’ or an interactive dialog where people are commenting and getting updates in real-time.  You don’t need to have a ‘real-time’ tool for discussing the blog contents in real-time.  You just have the real-time conversation on the blog itself.

So, I use the same tool to manage all these communication streams – my public communication, my public comments on the publications of others and various forms of private communication.  I can seamlessly move between the different paradigms.  The flow of private and public communication is unimpeded.

This reduction in ‘communication friction’ will change how we communicate.  In five years time we’ll look back and marvel at how primitive the ‘document transmission’ paradigm seems.   Communication and collaboration by editing documents ‘in the cloud’ will seem perfectly normal.

Microsoft and Google Declare War

On Thursday, May 28, 2009 Microsoft and Google officially declared war.

Microsoft announced Bing their new search initiative competing directly with Google’s core business.

Google announced Wave: a new product, platform and protocol that re-imagine communication and collaboration in the cloud.  It has grand ambitions that includes a direct assault on Microsoft’s core business of office communication and collaboration.

Initial reviews of Bing by industry insiders suggest it is competitive with Google’s search and offers some interesting features.  Most also believe these features and function won’t be sufficient by themselves to overcome people’s entrenched familiarity with Google.  Microsoft has anticipated this challenge by also announcing a massive advertising campaign to get people to try their new offering.

Microsoft is betting that search has matured, even becoming something of a commodity.  As such, by offering a comparable product they are able to shift the battle-field to a marketing and branding effort.  This MO is consistent with Microsoft history.  They have never been a first mover or an innovator.  They are an exploiter – a very determined one with deep pockets and patience.  And arguably, Bing is their ‘3rd generation’ of search engine (MSN and Live being the prior 2) — and it took them three tries to ‘get it right’ with Windows.  It will be interesting to see if they can finally grow their market share in search.

Google is not standing still on search – they continue to announce new search offerings at a heady pace.  It’s clear they intend to seriously defend their core business of search.  This highly profitable business is what allows them to make all their other big bets.

And Wave feels like a big bet.  It redefines how people communicate and collaborate.  This directly challenge’s Microsofts traditional paradigm of a ‘computer on every desktop’ in which that desktop computer is the primary repository of one’s information.  In Google’s cloud based future the desktop computer becomes irrelevant.  It people shift to the cloud, it represents a huge threat to Microsoft’s ability to license software stacks running on each of those computers.

Google has made many previous guerrilla attacks with products like Gmail and Google Docs.  But these are really just cloud based implementations of traditional paradigms.  Wave on the other hand is a full frontal assault because it encompasses not only these traditional means of communication and collaboration but also extends to include blogging, micro-blogging (Twitter) and activities currently associated with social networks.

It’s unusual for Google to announce such a grand product in such a relatively immature state.  The timing seems chosen to steal some of Microsoft’s Bing noise.  But it is a grand enough vision that Google will need help from legions of developers to make it happen   It is those legions who are the foot-soldiers in this battle – and they are mercenaries who will go where they see the biggest opportunity.

This battle is going to be played out over many years.  But we’ll likely look back and see these two announcements as a significant milestone in the struggle.

Local SEO Investment a No-Brainer

Local SEO investment is a no-brainer – and it’s one that will ultimately benefit everyone trying to provide marketing services to local businesses.

David Mihm has a great post in which he describes the basics (among many other things worth your time):

Do your keyword research, figure out which phrases you want to target, claim your Google and Yahoo local listings with proper categories, submit to infoUSA, Localeze, and Acxiom (via Universal Business Listing).  That covers 90% of your bases.   This basic process for one location shouldn’t take more than a few hours.  Obviously ongoing optimization, particularly in competitive niches, requires expertise and more diligence, but think of the ‘claiming your listing’ and submission process as an analog for researching keywords and writing your ads.

Every local business should be doing this.  Today.  There is probaby nothing else they can do that will provide the same level of return on investment.  As a point of reference David points to two recent studies by Conductor and Enquisite showing that SEO has a much higher return than many Pay Per Click campaigns for larger advertisers.  And given that the state of local SEO is much less evolved today, the returns in local SEO are likely even higher.

So, why isn’t every local business not doing this already?  Because they don’t know any better.  And since there isn’t a lot of money to be made in telling them how to do this, people aren’t exactly banging down the door to bring them this information.  And those who are banging down their doors to sell them marketing and advertising services aren’t that interested in telling them about something that is nominally competitive.

This sort of thinking is seriously counter-productive.  First of all, all of the local merchants advertising efforts – both online and offline are going to work better if they are taking care of the basics.  And this applies to those attempting to sell them additional services as well.

But more importantly, by shrouding the whole process in mystery we are undermining the confidence of local advertisers.  And when they eventually discover ‘the truth’ they are going to be very dis-appointed with those who didn’t help them earlier.


Truly local advertising set to emerge

A number of announcements this week suggest that truly local, geo-targeted advertising is gaining momentum.

To take-off, three things are required:

  1. Broad availability of geo-reference information in browsers and mobile devices.
  2. Advertising platforms that exploit this information to deliver advertising.
  3. Local advertisers who can benefit from such precise advertising.

This past week saw announcements on all three fronts.

Increased Availability of Geo-reference Information

Skyhook Wirelesss announced the availability of a ‘one-touch’ location capability for publishers.

The Loki plug-in works with all major Internet browsers and operating systems to determine the precise location of any Wi-Fi-enabled device instantly, given the user’s permission. Web developers can use visitor location information to personalize content, ease local searching, deliver localized ads and more.

Major websites such as Flickr, Mapquest and Weatherbug are incorporating the technology.  It makes it easy for web developers to deploy the sort of location based smarts that have been very popular on the iPhone:

“The WeatherBug iPhone application has been extremely successful in part due to its ability to be location-aware. Loki enables us to instantly offer this same, rich experience to our desktop and laptop users and was incredibly simple to integrate,” said Chris Sloop, co-founder and CTO of WeatherBug.

Geo-Targeted Advertising Platforms

Google and Placecast both announced geo-targeting ad vehicles this week.

Google announced a Maps Ad Unit:
mapsadunit

Placecast joined with Alcatel-Lucent to create a platform for delivering advertising to ‘on-the-go’ consumers.  Consumers ’sign-up’ for the service and the kind of messages they want to receive.  Then when you are near a place that might be interesting you will get an ad sent to you.  (Might be a bit spooky – but it is opt-in.)

Local Advertisers

And finally, TechCrunch reports that the Village Voice is planning a Local Ad Network.  This makes a lot of sense to me.  They already have a relationship with local advertisers – why not help these advertisers get exposed in other media?

Getting access to the local advertisers – often small and medium sized businesses – who can really benefit from such highly localized advertising will be the biggest challenge.  Or the biggest opportunity!

Selling recommendation data as a business model

Pelago/Whrrl CEO Jeff Holden made some interesting comments in a discussion with Greg Sterling.  First, he talked about the opportunity for recommendations in local search:

He discussed how this might apply to the emerging arena of “footstream” data and recommendations for people and places in the real world on mobile devices. Tracking mobile user behavior yields lots of data about the types of places users go and their real-world behavior. This hypotehtically could deliver local recommendations based on user profiles and corresponding “footstreams.”

Given Jeff’s background from Amazon and the nature of the Whrrl application (which has now been somewhat re-positioned) I always thought this was the ‘end-game’.

But perhaps even more interesting, is the possibility of making money off the acquired data in a more direct way:

Footstream tracking of individuals would have to be personal by necessity (with all the potential privacy questions), but the local recommendations Holden spoke about could be provided anonymously to users who are grouped into certain profiles based on their favorite places and activities in the real world.

He hinted that there might be an emerging business model here for Pelago as a repository and provider of this type of data for other publishers and sites.

I can imagine this raising some interesting privacy discussions, but it seems entirely logical – even inevitable perhaps.  And a tangible indication of the value of collecting such usage data!

RELATED:

Publishers: Your Usage Data is More Valuable than Your Content

Twitter is Real-Time + Public-Posting

You may have noticed the frenzy of excitement about real-time search sparked by the continuing explosive growth of Twitter.  Even Larry Page had to ‘weigh-in’ on the topic.  Real-time is the new IT trend.

But an equally important factor in Twitter’s rise and the excitement around it – especially among marketers – is that the posts are PUBLIC.  This means they can be analysed by many different people from researchers to marketers.  Not a day goes by without another story on how to use twitter (or twitter search) for marketing.  Marketers love it, because it gives them ready access to data that is normally hidden behind someones wall.

Google can no doubt index it’s searches in real-time and has it’s own vast real-time database of intentions.  But this data is not public.  Sure, they could probably make certain kinds of aggregate information available in a public format – but they can’t really start releasing details of individual searches.  Twitter on the other hand is based at it’s very heart on the idea of public posting.

Facebook has already implemented ‘real-time’ but their paradigm also runs up against a complicated set of privacy considerations.  They’ve developed a comprehensive  set of tools to let users determine who sees what – so the idea of ‘private’ and ‘group’ communication is central to the paradigm.

Twitters approach to public vs. private is simple.  It’s all public or it’s all just between friends.  And for most people – it’s all public.  If you don’t want something posted publicly on twitter – just don’t post it.

Twitter = real-time + public-posting

Majority of Local Advertisers Manage Their Own Campaigns

Two reports released today by Adquants provide illuminating insights in to the local advertising ecosystem.  Not surprisingly, the largest participants are resellers — accounting for up to 30% of the local advertising.

Paid Search Managers of Local Businesses

But, more fascinating is that more than 70% of local advertising campaigns are NOT being managed by large players.  This means the local businesses are managing these campaigns themselves or these campaigns are being managed by a long tail of smaller players doing it for them.

For these large players, their biggest competition may not be the other large players or even the even bigger players where they buy the traffic.  Instead, they probably need to be looking over their shoulders at the increasing number of Do It Yourselfers and a growing number of small businesses in the business of helping small businesses market themselves in the digital domain.

via Greg Sterling.

Google’s Carrot and Stick Approach to Local Businesses

Google has been getting a lot of attention this week due to an Appleseque PR event.  People have dutifully reported and analyzed all the new and wizzy things Google is doing.

There wasn’t much coverage on what Google is doing in local.  There are no sexy, headlining grabbing features.  Yet, local is very much at the centre of Google’s strategy.

Google’s Local Business Challenge

Google has two challenges: first, they need all local businesses to get a proper website.  And not just any website – a good one – where good means ‘follows sensible Search Engine Optimization principles’ (which are — in any case — mostly about good writing).

Only then can they get to the second challenge: getting local businesses to advertise with Google.  Those advertising services don’t work at all for businesses without a website and they don’t work well for poorly designed sites.

The Big Carrot

Users.  And lots of them.

Google has focused relentlessly on supporting local information.  Google Maps continue it’s steady march towards becoming the dominant mapping application.  Universal search makes Google the default starting place for local.  And, perhaps most importantly, Google is having great success in mobile search – which is where local search increasingly happens.

So, they have plenty of the users that local businesses want and need.  It’s a REALLY BIG CARROT.

The New Carrots

One of the headline features from Google is something called ‘rich snippets’ which Tim O’Reilly describes in his excellent post:

Earlier this week, Google made a nod to the other side of the debate, introducing a feature that they call “Rich Snippets.” Basically, if you mark up pages with certain microformats ( and soon, with RDFa), Google will take this data into account, and will provide enhanced snippets in the search results. Supported microformats in the first release include those for people and for reviews.

So, for example, consider the snippet for the Yelp review page on the Slanted Door restaurant in San Francisco:

slanteddoor.png

The snippet is enhanced to show the number of reviews and the average star rating, with a snippet actually taken from one of the reviews. By contrast, the Citysearch results for the same restaurant are much less compelling:

citysearch.jpg

(Yelp is one of Google’s partners in the rollout of Rich Snippets; Google hopes that others will follow their lead in using enhanced markup, enabling this feature.)

I think it’s telling that both Tim and Google chose LOCAL examples to illustrate the point.  This rich, structured data has the potential to become a ‘definitive reference’ for local businesses — finally allowing them to ensure the correct contact and location information is propagated.  But of course, in order to take advantage – they need a website.

And, in a largely ignored announcement Google also added a New Local Business Ads Interaction Report:

Back in January, we announced that we were adding four new links to local business ads – “Get Directions,” “Street View” (where available), “Save to My Maps,” and “Send.” We added these interactive links to help Maps users find the information they seek about your business more quickly and easily, and to enable you to give those potential customers additional information about your business. Now, there’s a new report in your Report Center to track users’ interactions with these links.

Better local ads and now better reporting for them.

The Stick

If you don’t have a proper website and you don’t register your information with Google you just are not going to be visible on Google.  This is a BIG STICK.  Can a business really afford to be invisible on Google?  No.  And in order to be visible, they will need to implement a website and invest in SEO (including support for the newly announced formats).

Pragmatically, this explains why Google’s map results seem so arbitrary.  The results are being ranked on the quality of the search engine optimization of the local business websites.  This provides a very strong incentive to local businesses to adhere to what Google needs them to do.  Google’s ranking algorithm is designed to attract the attention of businesses — while not punishing users too harshly during the transition period.

And of course, once those local businesses are online and properly optimized, Google will FINALLY be able to sell them advertising.

It’s not going to happen overnight — but Google has the will and the resources to see it through.

Microsoft Researchers Increase CTR 670% Using Behavioral Targeting

Behavioral targeting has been around for a while in various commercial products.  But now, for the first time, researchers at Microsoft Research Asia have completed an important empirical study demonstrating that it works.  In fact, it works extremely well increasing the click-through rate (CTR) up to 670% with the potential to achieve improvements in excess of 1000%.  Wow.  And kudos to Microsoft for undertaking this as an academic research program and making the results available to all.

They cover a lot of important ground in an academically rigirous way.  There are three key conlusions.

The Basic Assumption Holds

The basic assumption of behavioral targeting is that all the people who click on an ad are more similar to each other than they are to all those people who clicked on other ads.  If you can’t prove this assumption, it’s back to the lab to whip up something new.

But, not to worry, the researchers found that the people who clicked on the same ad are up to 90 times more similar to each other than users who clicked on another add.  Whew!  I guess that’s good news for anyone who has been touting the merits of behavioral targeting.  It’s also intuitively satisfying.  Still, it’s great to have it proven by research.

CTR Can Be Increased by Up to 670%

They used click-through rates as their measure of performance (because it is a readily available measure).  They implemented behavioral targeting by segmenting the users with various strategies and then compared what the CTR would have been with and without the segmentation strategy:

Through studying ads CTR before and after user segmentation for ads delivery, we observe that ads CTR can be improved by as much as 670% over all the ads we collected.

and:

In addition, we notice that if we can further design more advanced BT strategies, such as novel user representation approaches and novel user segmentation algorithms, ads CTR can be further improved beyond 1,000%.

Short Term Search Behavior Gives the Best Results

Finally, the researchers examined several different approaches to implementing behavioral targeting:

Through comparing different user representation strategies for BT, we draw the conclusion that the user search behavior, i.e. user search queries, can perform several times better than user browsing behavior, i.e., user clicked pages. Moreover, only tracking the short term user behaviors are more effective than tracking the long term user behaviors, for targeted ads delivery.

What it Means: A Mobile, Local Perspective

This study was done using logs from users searching, browsing and clicking on the web.  Local and mobile bring additional nuances to the equation.

This report is exciting for us here at Predictabuy because it confirms a lot of our own research which is specifically aimed at understanding user behavior in a mobile, local context.  Our research shows:

  1. short term behavior is also a stronger predictor than long term behavior in a mobile, local context;
  2. situational factors such as location, time of day, day of week and weather are very useful in user segmentation; and
  3. advertising performance benefits from dividing users in to  more segments than the number used in the Microsoft study.

via Greg Linden.

Read the full paper for yourself:”How much can Behavioral Targeting Help Online Advertising?” (PDF)

Random Ranking: Why Are Google Maps Results so Arbitrary?

I started with this search for “restaurants, Calgary” which returns something like this:

Google Maps Search for Restaurant in Calgary

Is there any rhyme or reason to the choices in the tiny subset that are highlighted for my viewing pleasure?  Oh, I realize many people have spent a lot of time reverse engineering the algorithms and that understanding these algorithms is important for Search Engine Optimization (SEO) if you want to find your business in that anointed list.  But, I mean from a USER’s point of view – it just seems arbitrary doesn’t it?

(The only that actually makes any sense is the Earl’s e – I know they are there because they paid to be there.)

Then Sebastian Provencher suggested changing the query to “category:restaurant, loc:calgary”.  Nominally, the same thing right?  Uh, no:

Another search on Google Maps for restaurant in Calgary

A different, equally arbitrary, set of results.

Now, in fact, there really isn’t enough information in a broad query like ‘restaurant, calgary’ to give me anything very meaningful.  The answer almost has to be arbitrary.  So, here’s my beefs:

  1. The results are presented AS IF they have some sort of authority or relevant ranking.  Why not provide the user with an indication or explanation on how the results have been ranked?
  2. If they are essentially arbitrary, why not make them truly random or semi-random?  Change them up.  This would drive the SEO guys crazy but seems like it would be fairer.  Why not just give me the ability to shuffle the results?

Now, the folks at Google are pretty smart.  They certainly know a thing or two about ranking things.  So, what’s up?

(Aside: the results today seem different from the results yesterday – at least somewhat.  So, I’m thinking they might actually be randomizing the ranking somewhat.  Does anybody know?)

Next Page »


Twitter Updates

Archives

 

May 2009
M T W T F S S
« Apr   Jun »
 123
45678910
11121314151617
18192021222324
25262728293031